by Jodie | Jun 1, 2016 | Economy, Finances
Economists and traders around the world closely monitor dozens of economic surveys and indicators that are released each week across a range of countries. However, the most important market indicators which can shift the needle on global market performance are:
GDP figures: The gross domestic product (GDP) is the most comprehensive of all economic indicators as it is an aggregate measure of a country’s total economic production and spending. It represents the market value of all goods and services produced by a country over a quarter on an annualised per cent basis, net of inflation. It comprises personal consumer spending, government purchases and investment, private investment spending on new equipment and buildings, including housing, private inventories; and the balance of foreign trade, which is calculated by subtracting imports from the level of exports.Given how comprehensive GDP figures are, and the relationship over time with corporate earnings, GDP figures for the world’s largest economies are the most closely watched indicators.
Inflation: The main indicator of inflation that is closely watched is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures changes in the prices of average consumer items. The overall reading provides a summary of how average living costs are changing. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index measures the change in prices of goods produced by manufacturing firms. In theory, if these rise significantly, the costs will be passed onto consumers, leading to faster growth in the CPI. As with unemployment data, the importance of inflation figures is raised because most central banks target a rate of growth in inflation when setting the level of short-term interest rates. Typically central banks target a level of inflation of around 2%, although in Australia the Reserve Bank is targeting a rate of inflation between 2-3%.
Employment figures: Are another closely watched summary indicator of economic activity.
This owes to the fact that not only do employment and unemployment data give a simple, timely and transparent view of overall growth, but also because most central banks directly target a level of the unemployment rate when they set short-term interest rates. In addition, employment growth leads back into future growth in an economy by influencing consumer confidence and spending. On the first Friday of each month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases monthly unemployment and job creation figures for the US economy. The release of these figures can drive swings in both bond and stock markets.
The housing market: Housing figures are more localised than other data. Local metrics include housing starts, new home sales, new building permits and house prices. Housing activity indicators tend to be watched closely as the sector is particularly impacted by changes in sentiment (due to the size of the transactions involved) while housing activity is the most impacted by interest rate changes.
Consumer activity: Consumer spending and retail sales figures are closely followed, as seeing what people buy and where they buy can provide valuable information about the economy. Consumer confidence surveys are another metric, as they give an insight in to what the future trends in spending may be. Stock prices may also closely reflect the future opinions about consumer activity.
Manufacturing data: Is based on surveys of the top manufacturing firms monitoring commercial activity such as future contracts and orders. For example the Institute of Supply Managers (ISM) Manufacturing Index monitors production, new orders, employment, supply times and inventories. These measures allow investors an inside view of national economic conditions which they use to help determine the relative strength of stock markets. For example, when the index is increasing, shares markets should also increase reflecting rising corporate earnings or profits. The purchasing manager index (PMI) is a similar indicator that is calculated for a range of countries in addition to the US. The Chinese PMI, for example, has recently received a lot of focus.
It has weakened below 50 (signifying weakness) which has raised concerns over the outlook for the Chinese economy and with it global growth.
At the top of the list of data which has recently raised concerns sits China’s PMI figures. The world’s second largest economy is a manufacturing giant, and for good reason global investors closely monitor developments in this key indicator of industrial activity. China’s PMI as at 20 January 2016 was 48.2, having contracted further from a volatile month of August 2015, when it was 49.7.
It is universally agreed that any number below 50 signals a contraction. In addition, the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI gauge shrank from 51 in July to 50.7 in August, reaching a two year low. It then marginally improved to 50.9 by December 2015; nonetheless indicating a slowdown that is no longer limited to just China. JP Morgan.
Plan ahead to meet your lifestyle goals
At times like this market movements can be hard to ignore, and all the related terminology overwhelmingly complex. However, seeking professional financial advice can give you clarity. Your financial adviser can help you build a diversified portfolio and establish a long term plan if you haven’t already done so, or adapt your existing plan to ensure it’s appropriate to weather market ups and downs. Having a long term financial plan in place can help you reach your savings and lifestyle goals.
Speak to your Wealth Planning Partners adviser today for more information.
by Jodie | May 31, 2016 | Finances, Savings, Wealth
Think having a Will in place means your estate plan is taken care of? Here are five examples that might make you think again.
Most people appreciate that having a Will helps you formalise what you’d like to happen to your assets if you pass away.
While there’s no doubt a Will is an important part of the estate planning process, it may not be enough to prevent unfavourable outcomes for your family.
59% of Australians have a will and 22% expect to make one…
Here we look at five common estate planning mistakes, including some real-life examples of what happens when things go wrong.
Top 5 estate planning mistakes
1. Having an outdated/invalid Will
Your Will needs to be reviewed and updated regularly to ensure it still accurately reflects your goals. This is particularly important when your family situation changes, as shown in the following example:
Bill had a family trust holding significant assets. After divorcing his wife Marlene, Bill inadvertently left Marlene in the family trust deed as the controller (appointor) of the trust.
When Bill unexpectedly passed away, Marlene was left in control of the family trust. She wound up the trust and transferred the trust assets to herself.
2. Not having a wealth transfer strategy
One of the reasons trust structures are popular for wealth transfer is that they give you greater control over how and when your assets are used. For example:
Jack made a Will following Mark’s birth many years ago. Mark, throughout his adulthood, developed spendthrift habits. When Jack passed away, leaving his estate to Mark as his only son, Mark squandered the estate.
Had Jack established a trust fund in his Will for Mark, appointing a professional and independent trustee to manage and administer the trust fund, Jack’s estate could have been passed on gradually.
3. Not using testamentary trusts
When your beneficiaries are minors, a testamentary tax structure can provide significant tax advantages over a family trust. For example:
Rob and Raelene were a professional couple with four young children. Rob passed away suddenly and didn’t have a Will in place. All assets were held in his name only.
When Rob’s assets were distributed to his children, they had to pay tax at children’s rates. Had Rob made a Will, he could have set up a discretionary testamentary trust, enabling income to be distributed to their four children at the adult rates of tax – creating significant tax savings for the family.
4. Not involving family members
There’s a tendency for people to avoid talking about sensitive topics like wealth transfer with their families, and particularly beneficiaries. The benefit of including your family in these conversations from an early stage can help makes sure well-meaning wishes are carried through.
For example, if you would like one of your children to get involved in the ongoing management of your charitable donations, you need to ensure they are aware of your goals and intentions so they can carry on your legacy as intended.
5. Not looking at the full picture
If you don’t have one professional looking at the complete picture of your estate plan, it increases the chances your assets won’t be distributed evenly. For example:
Mary was a single parent who wished to benefit her three children equally if she passed away, and signed a simple Will accordingly.
When Mary died suddenly, her main asset was her super and she did not have a death benefit nomination in place. One of her children was a financially-independent adult working as an accountant, while the other two were school aged children living at home.
The trustee of the super fund decided to pay the death benefits to Mary’s two school-aged children (to be held on trust), rather than to her deceased estate. This meant that her adult son missed out on receiving any benefit from super, while her two younger children received a greater share of Mary’s overall wealth.
by Jodie | May 24, 2016 | Economy, Finances, Investments, Money, Savings, Wealth
Bonds are one of the four major assets classes, but they’re probably the least understood. Here’s why they’re an important part of many portfolios.
What are bonds?
Bonds are essentially loan arrangements that governments and large companies use to raise money.
These loans generally have a fixed term and a fixed interest rate, with the interest either paid in full at the end of the term (i.e. at the ‘maturity date’) or in instalments along the way.
How do you invest in bonds?
A simple way to invest in bonds is through managed funds or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). This generally means your money is pooled with other investors in a diversified bond portfolio, which reduces the risk that any one borrower will default on the loan.
You can also invest in bonds through your super – bearing in mind that a typical ‘Balanced’ investment option allocates around 30% of its assets to bonds (also referred to as ‘fixed income’) and cash.
Why invest in bonds?
1. They provide a reliable source of income
Investing in bonds with high-quality borrowers (e.g. governments and blue-chip corporates) can give you a steady and reliable source of income over a set time period. This often makes bonds a good option for retirees or investors who want to generate ongoing income.
2. They offer higher potential returns than cash
Bonds typically pay a higher rate of interest than cash and term deposits, compensating investors for the additional risk associated with lending money.
Unlike cash investments, bonds also offer the potential for capital appreciation – which tends to happen when interest rates fall. This is because new bonds are typically issued with lower interest rates than older bonds, making the older bonds more valuable when traded.
This feature of bonds makes them a good hedge against dwindling returns from cash investments in a falling interest rate environment. The flipside is that bonds may lose value when interest rates rise.
3. They can be a good hedge against share market volatility
Bonds provide diversification benefits for investors because they tend to behave very differently to shares.
The table below shows the performance of Australian shares, Australian bonds and cash over the last 10 financial years, plus the average return over the last 30 years.
As you can see, some of the strongest years for bonds are when shares are in negative territory.
by Jodie | May 17, 2016 | Advisers, Australian Economy, Budget, Budgeting, Finances, Money, Savings, Women
Tracking where your money actually goes can make revealing reading.
ASIC’s 2012 consumer-spending figures show the average household spends $69,000 a year: Australians splash $78.4 billion a year on their cars, compared to just $2.2 billion on public transport; almost twice as much on gadgets as on fashion; and four times as much on beauty products and services as education.
To budget successfully it’s important to make your budget and spending limits realistic. MoneySmart has a range of suggestions for reducing outgoings without driving yourself to the point where you get fed up with the whole thing – a danger that’s highlighted in its advice and tips.
When you set out your budget and savings plan, think about what saving that money will achieve – list your goals.
The key to any successful budget management is to also work out your goals and plans. It’s much easier to trim spending or be more determined re-negotiating insurances or even your mortgage when you know what those savings will achieve. Tying your savings to a goal makes sense. If you know the savings will reduce your Mortgage or see you heading off on that holiday sooner, you’re more likely to stay on task.
RMIT’s women and money survey found that providing for family was most women’s main financial priority, but women’s incomes are most likely to be reduced when they start a family. There’s also caring for ageing parents thrown into the mix that can impact on income, savings and finances.
The best way to stay in control of your finances, is to build savings and investments as early as possible. Part of your monthly budget should include a regular savings amount.
Around 10 per cent if often given as a ‘rule of thumb,’ paid through a direct debit or regular BPay into a separate savings account. However, as everyone’s circumstances are different, it may be worth seeking your own independent financial advice.
Five steps to successful budgeting
- Do your own financial health check, listing all your income and expenses, using a tool such as a budget planner
- Decide your immediate and longer term financial goals, and consider getting some financial advice to help you do this
- Look at how you can trim spending to save more
- Set a weekly or monthly budget with spending limits in key areas. Use a diary or the MoneySmart TrackMySpend app to help you stick to these
- Set up a direct debit to put your savings into a separate account
by Jodie | May 13, 2016 | In The Media
o you have a strategy for when things don’t go according to plan?
How fantastic would it be if life just rolled along in accordance with our Plan A and nothing ever went wrong?
Unfortunately, you’ve probably experienced the need for a Plan B at some stage in your life, or even wondered if all those other letters in the alphabet might get a run as well. As a business owner, what can you do when things don’t go quite according to plan?
You’ve likely heard of contingency planning, but most aren’t really sure what it is or how it could apply in their business.
What Is a Contingency Plan?
Basically, it’s a course of action designed to help you respond effectively to a future event or situation that might (or might not) occur – your very own Plan B. These risks can appear at any time and managing (and minimising) risk is an essential part of business planning.
This document will become your own personal ‘risk register’ to record potential problems, identify how serious they could be, what costs may be required, who will fix them and how.
How Do I Create the Plan?
- Develop the policy statement
- Conduct a business-impact analysis
- Identify pre-emptive measures
- Create alternate strategies
- Develop detailed guidance and procedures
- Ensure it will work
- Maintain the plan
The policy statement begins the formal process of planning. It provides the guidance needed throughout your plan. This will evaluate the true level of risk to your business so you are able to properly manage it.
Next, identify which systems are critical to supporting your business function. Is the risk of a major or minor impact, and is it preventable? As an example, it may be a simple as: if there’s a situation with no electricity, what can you do?
Then come up with measures to reduce the effect of disruptions and minimise the costs. Can you be in an area or building where power supply is regular and mostly guaranteed? Is a generator something that could assist with power outages? And if so, is it a financially sound investment?
What are some contingencies for when things go wrong? Basically, what will you do if the worst does happen? Come up with some thorough strategies to ensure you can recover quickly after a disturbance. Will you shut up shop and go home if there’s no power? Can you manually take payments to process later? Will you need additional security? What will work best for your business? Your plan needs to detail exact procedures for what needs to happen and guidance to minimise the impact of interruptions.
Testing the plan can highlight gaps and better prepare your business for recovery. Test the plan’s effectiveness and assist your organisation to be ready for any contingency.
Finally, ensure the plan is reviewed regularly to remain relevant and reflect changes as your business grows. This is a living, breathing document that needs to be frequently reviewed and updated.
Other considerations highlighted on the Australian government’s business website under risk management include:
- Interest rate changes
- Delays or shortages in inventory
- Workplace injuries
- Skilled staff leaving the business
- Natural disasters
- New competitors
- Your product becoming obsolete due to new technology
- Customers can switch to a competitor or lose interest in your products
When compiling your register, seek help from those who also have an interest in your business such as your professional business advisor, accountant or bookkeeper, financial advisor or solicitor. They likely have insights into situations you might not have considered, ideas to minimise risk via insurance strategies and helpful tips to include in your plan.
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