Market Update – June 2022

Market Update – June 2022

Volatility is Normal

The volatility that we’ve seen over the last six months, while significant, is not an unusual occurrence for a normal and healthy functioning market. Heightened volatility is an uncomfortable experience in the short- term.  Equity markets and some parts of the bond markets will continue to be an important contributor to overall long-term returns.

We appreciate that the current environment looks concerning given falls in markets and likely further interest rate rises during 2022.  With the possible risk of recession, however it is important to continue to stay invested.  Manage your portfolio in line with your long-term objectives, aligned to your risk tolerance. We encourage investors to discuss their portfolio with their adviser to ensure that it meets their personal needs, objectives and is in line with their risk tolerance.

Key Summary Points:

  • Stock and Bond Markets have fallen dramatically this week, continuing the trend since the start of 2022.
  • High inflation in the U.S. was the cause – coming in at 8.6%. The highest in 40 years. This prompted the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 0.75%. Domestically, the RBA raised rates by 0.5%.
  • The Inflation is being caused by a range of factors, including supply chain disruptions due to the COVID crisis and the war in Ukraine.
  • Investors fear rising interest rates, to combat inflation, will hurt economic growth and cause a recession.
  • Fear of slower economic growth has hurt the share market, which performed strongly in 2020 and 2021.
  • Stocks market and Bond market falls means they are now more attractively priced.
  • Take a long-term view and stay invested, with diversification, in line with your risk tolerance.
  • Time in the market, is more important than timing the market.

Inflation at 40-year highs

The chart above shows the recent dramatic increases in US Inflation with the colours reflecting where the inflation has come from.  Mainly from energy prices, services and food.

The COVID crisis and the war in Ukraine caused reduced supply of goods and services. Also, just after the COVID crisis, governments and central banks increased the money supply to support markets and economies. The increased money supply, meant more money bidding for the same quantity of goods, causing rising prices. This will likely continue throughout 2022, as it takes time to work through the global economy.

What’s ahead?

We expect inflation and interest rates to continue rising in 2022. This will have an effect in the short-term, slowing economic growth. We also expect inflation to reduce in 2023 and this should take pressure off the global economy. This is because supply side shocks should reduce as the world opens up.

An end to the war in Ukraine would also help the inflation situation, as supply of many key commodities would increase.

Markets have fallen substantially and are therefore more attractively priced than recent all-time highs at the end of 2021. There are asset classes that should do well in the coming periods, including floating rate Bond markets and asset classes that benefit from inflation.  That is, Infrastructure and Commodities.

One of the important lessons in investing is that time in the market, is more important than timing the market. The following chart demonstrates that short term movements in markets (in this case the ASX 200) can be extremely volatile.  This is what we have witnessed in the past six months.  Investing for the longer term (the blue line) provides a much more stable outcome.  As we continue working through heightened volatility, keep the longer-term in mind.

Long Term Returns (Blue Line) More Stable than Short Term Return (Green Line)

If you’re worried about your personal situation, give the Wealth Planning Partners team a call on 07 5593 0855 to chat further.

Disclaimer

The information in this report is general advice only and does not take into account the financial circumstances, needs and objectives of any particular investor. Before acting on the advice contained in this document, you should assess your own circumstances or seek advice from a financial adviser. Where applicable, you should obtain and consider a copy of the Product Disclosure Statement, prospectus or other disclosure material relevant to the financial product before making a decision to acquire a financial product. It is important to note that investments may go up and down and past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

The contents of this report should not be disclosed, in whole or in part, to any other party without the prior consent of the IOOF Research Team and Advice Licensees. To the extent permitted by the law, the IOOF Research team and Advice Licensees and their associated entities are not liable for any loss or damage arising from, or in relation to, the contents of this report.

For information regarding any potential conflicts of interest and analyst holdings; IOOF Research Team’s coverage criteria, methodology and spread of ratings; and summary information about the qualifications and experience of the IOOF Research Team please visit https://www.ioof.com.au/adviser/investment_funds/ioof_advice_research_process

Take Control of your Retirement

Take Control of your Retirement

Are you approaching retirement?

Chances are the funding of your lifestyle in retirement may be on your mind!

Take steps now to avoid getting caught short on retirement income and live the retirement lifestyle you want.  It’s time to take control of your retirement.

The qualifying age is increasing by six months every two years until it reaches 67 in July 2023. The Age Pension age increased to 66 and a half on 1 July 2021.

If for example, you are planning to retire at 60 you will need to wait until you’re 67 before you can apply for the Age Pension. You’ll have to rely on your own savings and super in the interim, making it crucial to ensure you have enough money put away for later years. But the good news is that there’s still time to grow your retirement savings.  Take control of your retirement savings now.

Boost your super

Contributing more to your super can be a reliable route to bolstering your retirement fund. By making extra contributions through salary sacrifice, you can grow your super and at the same time reduce the amount of income tax you pay. The government will tax your salary sacrificed contributions, within the allowable concessional contribution cap, at 15 per cent, which may be much lower than your marginal tax rate.

Making non-concessional or after-tax super contributions is another option. Generally, you can contribute up to $110,000 each financial year if your total super balance is less than $1.7 million at 30 June of the last financial year. To understand how these contributions work, it’s wise to get professional advice.

Beef up your savings

Your personal savings outside of super can supplement your super payments in retirement. But are they growing enough now to provide you with some level of income when you retire?

To build up your savings, you may have to invest part of it and make sure it’s growing faster than the rate of inflation over the long term. You should seek professional advice to see what investments are appropriate for you.

Know your entitlements

Besides the Age Pension, you may be eligible for other government benefits and concessions. For example, you may be eligible for a concession card such as the Pensioner Concession Card (if you are receiving the Age Pension), Commonwealth Seniors Health Card or the state based Seniors Card. Concession cards like these may entitle you to discounts on some commercial and public services. Concessions that allow you to buy prescription medicine at a discount may also be available.

But keep in mind that these benefits have strict eligibility rules. There’s also no guarantee that these entitlements will still be available by the time you retire. So, take charge of your retirement.

Working with your financial adviser, you can develop a strategy that helps ensure you’ll be well provided for regardless of changes to pension policies.  If you’d like to discuss your own retirement needs, reach out to the team at Wealth Planning Partners to chat about your situation.

Russia Ukraine Update

Russia Ukraine Update

Russia Ukraine Event Update

On 21 February, Russia asserted its view on the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic.  Russia began mobilising troops to conduct peacekeeping operations. This was a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, the Minsk agreement, and has been widely denounced by the West. Subsequently, Russia instigated military strikes on Ukraine and has invaded.  This is an initial event update on the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Russia initiates full scale military assault on Ukraine

The build-up of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border in recent weeks has been a clear indication of intent to take action. US and NATO Member nations have been providing Ukraine with military aid.  This includes lethal weapons, anti-armour missiles & artillery, heavy machine guns, helicopters, small arms, ammunition, radio systems, medical equipment and spare parts. Monetary aid has been provided. US Administration has pledged aid to Ukraine of $650 million to date. UK, Danish and Dutch Governments have provided material monetary support.

Nothing has deterred Russia from invading Ukraine with missile strikes and border crossings. Russia seized key strategic assets including Chernobyl Nuclear plant and attacked military and civilian sites.

US and EU Member State Sanction Reactions

Post the initial move on Ukraine, sanctions were imposed. Post the missile strikes, further sanctions have now been imposed by US and other countries. Further sanctions and action may be taken.

US has sanctioned Russia’s foreign debt, meaning it can no longer raise money from Western financial institutions. This will impact Russia’s ability to finance military efforts. Further sanctions are likely as Russia deepens its invasion of Ukraine. All 27 EU Member states have agreed on a range of anti-Russia measures. Russian banks have had assets frozen in the UK. Certain wealthy Russian billionaires have been issued travel bans.  Their ability to access funds from EU banks has been denied. Further, trade between EU and two rebel-held regions has been banned.

Germany has halted major infrastructure projects, including Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline,. Additionally, 351 members of Russia’s Duma, or parliamentary lower house have been hit with restrictions. Further restrictions may be imposed excluding Russia from global financial messaging service Swift, used by most banks worldwide. That would seriously curtail Russia’s ability to do business.

At some point, further sanctions would start to harm the economies of those imposing them.  Countries such as the US and Germany have strong ties with Russia via trade.

Macroeconomic Impacts

Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe and a huge source of agriculture.  The economic damage could have worldwide implications. Russia has inflicted economic damage on Ukraine, with contracts being cancelled and businesses withdrawing people. The White House has warned US silicon chip industry prepare for a ban of exports to Russia. This may well soon extend to all electronics supplies.

Crude Oil WTI has risen about $3 USD/Bbl today or about 3.33%, continuing recent increases.

Source: Iress

Prolonged conflict is almost certain to put further upward pressure on oil and natural gas prices. Sanctions will continue to limit supplies and force prices higher.  This is particularly true in Europe, which is already struggling with high energy prices and limited supply. This may mean sustained or higher inflation, which could mean further upward pressure on interest rates.

Gold is usually seen as a safe haven in times of conflict.  Main Ukraine exports are raw materials iron, steel, mining products and agricultural products, chemical products and machinery. Ukraine is a large exporter of grains and cereals so there is potential for significant price rises.  The US is a large purchaser.

Equity Market and Sector Impacts

The Russian move into Ukraine will cause further increases in equity market volatility. We will continue to feel the impact in rising energy prices. As can be seen from the graphic below, Russia and Ukraine account for a material amount of Oil and gas products.  They share a total around 22% of global exports combined.

Russian gas exports to Europe account for 40-50% of its import needs. Energy markets have been tight as COVID related lockdowns have abated and travel resumes. Overlay this with increasing concerns around ESG and banks in western economies under pressure to cease funding fossil fuel projects.  This further underpinned already tight supply demand dynamics. We suspect there is already a premium in energy prices for current tensions.  There is more upside in prices likely should full scale war break out. This feeds inflationary concerns which are already a dominant theme in equity markets.  Most companies in current reporting season cite rising cost pressures in materials and labour.

Soft Commodities

Soft commodities like wheat and corn would be impacted given Russia and Ukraine account for 25% of global exports. This could potentially be an export boost for Australia if supply is restricted or sanctions placed on exports from Russia. Not included in this graphic is ammonium nitrate.  Russia is responsible for around 65% of global production. This is the primary ingredient used in fertilisers. Russia banned the export of this mineral product recently, with the ban to extend to April 2022.  Should sanctions remain in place for an extended period, the impact of inflation on food prices could be enduring.

Gold

During times of heightened geopolitical tension gold and gold stocks tend to be a safe haven. Gold has been out of favour as risk aversion has been low and sentiment poor. This has been reflected in valuation of gold stocks with many trading at significant discounts to respective valuations as measured by P/NAV. This is highlighted below with gold stocks on the left of the chart. We highlight Northern Star (ASX:NST) which was recently trading at P/NAV of 0.73x with a FCF yield of 7% in FY22. Sentiment appears to be changing as many investors seek safe haven assets.

Source: Iress

Valuation of Gold stocks on the left side of the chart

Source: Goldman Sachs Oct 21

Asset Class Impacts Since the Russian Move into Ukraine

Commodities

Both Oil and Gold have rallied in recent weeks, with the specter of reduced oil supply driving prices higher. Gold has performed its traditional role in periods of market stress,  Investors seek protection via the precious metal.

Source: Iress

Interest Rates

Have been largely driven by inflation and market expectations of rate hikes over the next 12 months.   US Bonds saw some buying.  Investors shifted allocations in a flight to quality given uncertainty inherent in equities markets during times of elevated uncertainty.

Equity Markets

Equity Markets have been volatile for some time, with high growth stocks suffering over the past 3 months. The potential for rate hikes became clearer, however increased volatility presented by the Russian invasion of Ukraine dominated narrative since late January.

Source: Iress

German markets have seen most volatility among major European exchanges.  Emerging markets have been languid over the past 12 months compared to developed market peers. Whilst the read-through impact of any conflict on Emerging Markets is likely to be varied, potential higher inflation (and consequent higher US Interest rates) is likely to be a headwind.  However, the relatively higher exposure to the energy sector (6.8% in EM vs 3.8% in Developed Markets) may mitigate some volatility.

Source: Iress

Long-term implication for portfolios

It is worth noting historically, market impacts of localised geopolitical events like this have been short-lived. Diversified model portfolios are built on a Strategic (Long-Term) Asset Allocation foundations that include stress testing for geopolitical events.

We continue to monitor the situation closely as events unfold. We will continue to provide Russia Ukraine updates.  Further deterioration in this conflict may necessitate the need to implement defensive portfolio changes. At this stage we are not making changes and keeping a watching brief on our Asset Class weightings. There is a fair degree of defensiveness built into current settings.  The situation is deeply concerning and we will monitor closely.

From a very long-term perspective, we note that volatility has historically tended to cluster (both to the upside and downside.) See the chart below on the left.  If investors react to large negative movements by selling out of equities, they run the risk of being out of the market for large positive days. The consequences of missing a handful of these “best days” can be substantial.  This is evidenced by the chart below on the right. So, we are mindful of this before taking action and continue to take a long term view.

Date: 27th January 2022 Source: ASX

Author: Andrew Simpson, Andrew Ash, Ross Stanley, Steve O’Hanna. Reviewer: Matt Olsen

Footnote

This document has been prepared by Actuate Alliance Services Pty Ltd (ABN 40 083 233 925, AFSL 240959) (‘Actuate’), a member of the Insignia Financial group of companies (‘Insignia Financial Group’).  This is for use and distribution by representatives and authorised representatives of Australian Financial Services Licensees with whom any Insignia Financial Group member has a commercial services agreement.

Information in this document is of a general nature only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should seek personal financial, tax, legal and such other advice as necessary or appropriate before relying on the information in this document or making any financial investment, insurance or other decision.

Information in this document reflects our understanding of relevant regulatory requirements and laws etc as at the date of issue, which may be subject to change. While care has been taken in preparing this document, no liability is accepted by Actuate or any member of the Insignia Financial Group, nor their agents or employees for any loss arising from any reliance on this document.

If any financial product is referred to in this document, you should consider the relevant PDS or other disclosure material before making an investment decision in relation to that financial product.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out to the Gold Coast team of financial planners at Wealth Planning Partners to discuss your personal situation.

 

 

 

Russia Ukraine Concerns and your Finances

Russia Ukraine Concerns and your Finances

Worried about the impact of Russian Ukraine concerns and your finances?  Please reach out directly to the Wealth Planning Partners team if you want to discuss your personal financial plan.

So, a little perspective on the Ukraine and Russian situation. This geopolitical event is concerning on practically every level. And there are a wide range of potential outcomes and scenarios. Putting aside views on the way this might evolve, our role is to look at this financially and you are secure. This requires us to avoid prediction and instead use multiple layers of thought.

Want the Good News?

  • Your direct exposure to Russia and Ukraine is negligible. We maintain exposure to emerging markets for some clients given the attractive valuations and diversification.  Weightings to Russia and Ukraine are small. Russian companies only account for around 2.8% of the emerging market basket for equities and around 4.1% for bonds. Ukraine doesn’t register on factsheets because it is so small. Perversely, if prices in these regions fall significantly, the expected reward for buying might exceed the risk.  This in turn creates a buying opportunity—but that isn’t the case right now.
  • Knock-on effects?  The risks are much more notable, but we do see some offsetting positives. Again, starting with the good news… tensions are pushing commodity prices higher. This has supported sentiment toward energy companies, which have done very well for portfolios lately. We carry a long term, valuation-driven focus in portfolios (preferring cheaper assets) which tend to do well in this kind of environment.. That said, we can’t rule out an exodus of investor money if things deteriorate quickly. Never expect straight lines in markets!  And if negativity really takes hold, it could open a world of opportunity to add undervalued assets to your mix.

Rest assured, we are monitoring this situation closely and hearing from a range of industry experts to understand the impact as it evolves. Ultimately, we are keeping a close eye on any consequential impacts and given everything we know (while acknowledging the unknowable), it reinforces the benefits of a long-term, valuation driven approach. We’re staying in touch with the Morningstar research house to navigate this uncertain period, keeping us all on the path to achieving your goals.

What to do?

If anything changes, we’ll be sure to let you know, but for now we hope you find this touchpoint useful.  In the meantime, it’s usually best to ‘hold the course.’

Please don’t hesitate to contact the Robina office or your adviser directly if you have any questions or issues.  Gold Coast Financial Planners, Amanda Cassar & Mitchell Cassar are here to take your calls if needed.  Contact details here.

Dreaming about money? What does it mean?

Dreaming about money? What does it mean?

Do you dream about money?  Daydream even?  When you have dreams about money, it can be a bit of an interesting view into what your subconscious is thinking about when it comes to the topic of money or finances. Your dreams can influence your decisions, so it’s a good idea to delve deeper into what you’re dreaming about.  Are you dreaming of winning money or giving money away?  Whatever the case, there can be a hidden meaning.  Let’s take a look at what it all might mean?

What does it mean to dream about money?

Firstly, it’s not weird to have dreams about money, you’re not the only one.  Many folks out there have dreams about money.  Even Women’s Day have run articles about dreaming about the dollars!  Although you might think it’s odd, it can be fun to try and see what it all might mean!.  Once you have a better understanding of what your dream might mean, you can nut out a plan and take action. We’re going to go through some common dreams that are commonly experience – then we can see if we can make these become a reality!

Dreaming about finding cash?

How exciting! You’ve found money!  You might find $20 in a jacket or purse, or perhaps you’ve spotted a few bucks on a footpath.  Just think… did you feel excited?  Perhaps the amount of money you found is somewhat less important than the exciting feeling you get finding it.  When dreaming about finding money, your subconscious could be indicating that you might have misplaced some cash somewhere. Have you checked to see if you have any unclaimed money around?  Who knows… it’s worth checking!

Dreaming about winning money?

Dreaming about winning money doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re about to win big in some lottery draw. However, it could insinuate that you currently have positive energy in your life, making you feel happier or might have a bit more luck than usual. Use the opportunity to harness this positivity and look for ways to boost financial security.  Perhaps you could start a side-hustle that suits your hobbies as well as your income goals.

Dreaming about losing money?

This one’s more stressful!  Even though you can wake up from such a dream, you might be in a situation where it’s a representation of your current reality.  Meaning, your real-life finances don’t match your financial goals.  Take a look at your budget.  Are you spending money on items that don’t serve you any value?  Maybe you could cut the pay-tv?  In turn, needing to rein in or cut out necessary spending can take away the feeling that money is slipping through your fingers.  Why not take advantage of this Budget Planner?

Dreaming about a shopping spree?

We all like this one, right?!  A fantasy shopping spree!  A spending spree that satisfies your wants and needs sounds like a fantastic dream.  However, excessive shopping can also have the down-side of placing you into debt. With this in mind, you might want to re-evaluate your money goals and make saving a priority.

The bottom line

As you probably know, heaps of people dream about money at some point in their lives.  When you experience this for yourself, you can decide what action you need to take.  Listen to your subconscious and aim to move toward a financial life that brings you peace of mind. If you’d like to review your own finances, reach out to our Gold Coast based financial planning team, Amanda Cassar and Mitchell Cassar, based in Robina.

https://learn.thryv.com/hc/en-us/articles/360002070591-Sales-Payments-Getting-Started