by Amanda Cassar | Aug 3, 2020 | Australian Economy
Melbourne suffers under Stage 4 Lockdowns
Melbourne continues to suffer under lockdowns. Stage 4 lockdowns announced by Victorian Premier, Daniel Andrews, along with shutdowns of particular industries, are said to have delivered a hammer blow to the Australian economy.
Federal Treasury forecasts require Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, to inject substantial amounts of money into Victoria. This is to avoid prolonging what is already classified as an economic disaster.
Australia’s second-biggest state, by population and economic output, has been in an increased state of reinforced lockdown conditions. It has been almost a month and will now go into a state of near hibernation for at least another six weeks or more.
The Federal government may need to provide financial aid to sustain Victorian economy to mitigate flow-on effects throughout Australia.
Jobkeeper
The down-turn in economic effects will be felt across Australia. Many who believe JobKeeper and JobSeeker support can be safely reduced at the end of September, (less than 60 days away) – is a dangerous fantasy. Melbournians continue to suffer the effects of long term lockdowns.
“That will mean there are less people working less shifts,” Andrews said. “There is less contact. There is less seeding of this virus from workplaces back into families and throughout the Victorian community.”
A third group will have to temporarily, but entirely, shut down. Andrews was not able to confirm which industries will fall into which category. However, COVID has spread through some industries such as meat works. Industries hardest hit have a high count in casual employees where people work within close proximity.
Andrews repeatedly said it is a huge cause for concern that casual workers keep turning up to work when they feel unwell because they fear they will never get another shift.
Stay at Home
The Victorian government offers $300 for people to stay home between getting tested and getting their results. This is enough to cover a few of their shifts. However, it raises the question for employees “if you’re thrown off the books, what are you supposed to do after?”
The Government has also provided a $1,500 payment for people who test positive, but take-up has been poor. Forcibly shutting high-risk industries should stem infections at work, but the cost to workers will be enormous.
The hit will also be felt through the economy across Australia as spending vanishes and the goods and services they supply diminish. People are losing jobs and it’s older workers who are feeling the effects the most.
Hospitality Sector
Workers in the devastated hospitality sector, who though they could get back to work, now have no chance. Workers hit hard by this new wave of chaos will need money from the government in order to eat and pay bills.
The question is: which government? The Victorian government’s finances must be nearing their limits. On the other hand, the Commonwealth apparently has oodles of spare capacity to borrow at the lowest interest rates in history.
Reach out
If you’d like to discuss your financial situation of eligibility for government payments, please reach out to your local Gold Coast financial planning team. The Advisers at Wealth Planning Partners are available on 07 5593 0855 between 9 and 5 most days.
by Amanda Cassar | Jul 27, 2020 | Australian Economy, Economy
We’re in the midst of a global recession…
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a global recession unfolding within the space of two months, with share markets collapsing and then staging a strong recovery. Markets have performed strongly even as we remain in the midst of tumultuous recession and a worsening global pandemic. So if we’re in the midst of a global recession, just why has the sharemarket rallied?
Why has the Sharemarket rallied?
How is this possible?
Two types of data have been used to help understand the collapse and rapid rally of share markets throughout the month of June:
- Business survey data, aka Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI), are available for most economies and track expected future production.
- High frequency (daily) data produced by technology applications track day-to-day travel and purchases by the household sector.
What does the business survey data tell us?
Substantial shifts in PMI surveys have been linked to changes in expected earnings that companies are predicting. This generally drives up share market returns. We have seen share markets rally as global PMI surveys lifted firmly through June.
This rapid recovery reflects massive support governments and central banks have provided, stepping in to stimulate economies.
Assessing technology platform data
High frequency data hasn’t been around for long but given its daily and weekly nature, it is a useful way to track economies. This also provides a good ‘check’ when looking at the lift in earnings expectations from the PMI data.
Transport
Looking at transport data, where increased movement indicates that economies are ‘opening up for business’ again, the data has broadly improved in-line with the bounce in PMIs. Apple transport data for driving and public transport has recovered from the mid-March low.
However, across regions the recovery has been uneven with Europe (except for the UK) and Japan showing the strongest recovery. Driving in the US has recovered above January levels. However, in contrast to the EU and Japan, public transport remains well below peak levels.
Consumer Data
When we assess high frequency consumer data in the US, we can see that consumption has recovered from a fall of around 35% post-lockdown (to be down around 7%).
In the last week of June, possibly reflecting the recent surge in cases, the improvement in both Apple mobility and consumer data has flattened in July to be down around 9%. The data tells that overall, the sharemarket rally has been supported by a solid bounce in key leading indicators since the lockdown collapse.
The US sharemarket has seen technology (growth) stocks lead the recovery. Other markets such as the EU and Japan should now build support. China’s economy appears to continue to recover from the pandemic, supporting markets, and has now overtaken recovery in US markets. The Australian share market, still recovering, has lost some momentum with the spike in COVID cases in Victoria.
What may be ahead?
Overall, the rapid and broad-based improvement in both PMIs and high frequency data appears to be flattening out in the month of July. The indicators suggest that markets have captured the initial bounce and are now consolidating. The next catalyst is likely to be the timing and effectiveness of vaccines made broadly available. Initial news seems to be positive, but until there’s some greater clarity from the current vaccine trials, markets could track sideways or possibly weaken if the infection rates in the US continue to advance. In these challenging times it’s wise to seek professional financial advice if you’re feeling concerned about your investment strategy.
A qualified financial adviser can support you to assess your short and longer-term financial goals, which may help to provide peace of mind with regards to any concerns about the current market environment.
Give the team at Wealth Planning Partners a call on 07 5593 0855 to discuss your needs.
by Amanda Cassar | Jun 5, 2018 | Finances
“Cancer isn’t always a matter of genetics or bad luck.” – Prof. David Whiteman, Brisbane’s QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute.1
A recent study from the institute found risky habits and behaviour are to blame for more than 16,000 Australians being diagnosed with cancer each year.2 The good news is that changing these behaviours may help prevent certain cancers forming.
The most common types of cancers that are directly related to lifestyle choices include skin melanomas; lung, bowel, liver and stomach cancers.3
The key culprits causing these types of cancers are pretty obvious to most of us, and include:
- smoking
- high intake of red & processed meats
- low fruits and vegetables
- excessive exposure to UV light
- excessive alcohol consumption
- physical inactivity
- overweight.4
You don’t need to be a genius to know it all boils down to what we put in our bodies and how often we move.
So, what changes can you make for a healthier lifestyle?
- The biggest cause of preventable cancer is smoking, so your first mission is to “hang tough, don’t puff!”5
- Eat more fruit and veg and reduce red and processed meat –going vegetarian just two days per week may help you create a more balanced diet. You might even be surprised at some of the tasty and creative options available minus the meat!
- Decrease the grog – limit drinks to special occasions, weekends or set yourself the challenging of nursing one to two drinks only at a party.
- Exercise regularly – exercise helps reduce risks of various physical and mental health problems.6 If you have a sedentary ‘sit on youb bum’ lifestyle, even committing to 15 minutes of walking a day could be a great start.
- Reduce exposure to UV light – get your rays early in the morning or late in the afternoon and use a combination of protective clothing, shade and sunscreen. The tan bed has got to go!
1-5 ABC News, (2017), ‘Changes to risk factors could have prevented 40 per cent of cancer deaths, study finds’. Available at: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-12/cancer-study-finds-40pc-deaths-preventable-with-lifestyle-change/9247876
6 Australian Government, Department of Health, ‘Physical Activity’. Available at: http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/phy-activity
