by Jodie | Mar 15, 2011 | Economy, Finances, General
How the Three-Act Drama Unfolding in the Middle East May Affect Your Money
After 30 years in power, it took only 18 days to topple Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. He capitulated to the demands of the protesters and resigned as President. Facebook and Twitter were used as tools like never before, and the quick toppling has led to a domino effect and instability throughout the region as we currently watch similar efforts play out in Libya. What does this mean for you and your money?
Since the glory days of ancient Greece, we’ve had the three-act play. You’re probably familiar with how it goes…
Act I sets the stage, introduces the characters and identifies the main problem. Act II is the most important because the main problem becomes much more dangerous and difficult and the protagonist of the story looks like they will lose. Act II usually ends on an emotionally-charged cliffhanger so you’ll be compelled to come back from intermission. Nail biting stuff! Act III pulls it all together and the story wraps up with the protagonist (usually) winning and everybody (usually) living happily ever after (unless you’re watching Les Miserables.) Ah, if only real life was so neat and tidy!
While it’s too early to know the outcome of Act II or Act III, it may make sense to look at two potential extreme outcomes. These bookends give us a sense for a possible worst case and best case.
Extreme Outcome One
On the negative side, if the Middle East erupts into a fiery ball of flames, it could be a serious problem for the world. The Middle East can be a powder keg and with its strategic importance in the oil market, any disruption there could send the world economy into a tailspin. Multiple countries are experiencing unrest among their people so the call for reform in the region is strong and certainly not over yet. Some are suggesting we keep an eye on Bahrain and other nations in the area.
Extreme Outcome Two
On the positive side, the changes occurring in the Middle East could usher in a new era of democratic reforms that lead to faster economic growth and rising stock prices. Remember the fall of Eastern Europe’s Soviet satellite states and the toppling of the Berlin Wall in 1989? The decade that followed was a strong one for worldwide economic growth and stock prices. If the fall of Eastern Europe is a blueprint, then there could be some rocky, but survivable times ahead followed by a long period of growth.
The Impact of Technology and Social Media
One of the big differences between the fall of Eastern Europe’s dictators back in the late 1980s and the situation in the Middle East is the rise of the internet, and, in particular, social media. The educated, internet-savvy young adults who helped fuel the protests in Egypt reportedly used Twitter and Facebook to mobilize their followers. While the fax machine was the technology of choice back in 1989, the tools of today are exponentially more powerful.
Victor Hugo said, “An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come.” For the Middle East, that idea is political and economic freedom. Our interconnected world enables the far reaches of the globe to see how the politically free and economically prosperous countries enjoy a relatively high standard of living. The people in these emerging countries see it on TV. They read about it on the internet. They travel to our country and become educated in our universities. They like what they see and now they want it for their home countries.
A few months ago, nobody was predicting the imminent downfall of Hosni Mubarak and the resulting domino effect in the Middle East. His swift decline is another example of how we live in a “speeded up” world of instantaneous communication and a desire for immediate gratification. That potentially dangerous combination means the ultimate denouement of this unfolding drama is any pundit’s guess.
As your advisor, though, we’re not in the pundit guessing game. Instead, we are actively monitoring the start of Act II and its potential implications for your portfolio. What this means for you and your money is that volatility and uncertainty are a fact of life. What happens in the Middle East can affect us very quickly—we have to look no further than the price of gas at the pump.
Regardless of how this drama unfolds, we will do our best to try and meet your goals and objectives over the long term. If you have any questions or concerns about the Middle East situation and how it may affect you, please call us. We are here for you each step of the way. As always, thank you for your trust and confidence in our services.
![The US Economy – still the biggest kid on the block]()
by Jodie | Mar 10, 2011 | Business, Debt Management, Economy, Finances
We’ve all heard the talk – America is broke, UK too – and ‘Sovereign Debt’ issues still rule most of Europe – but if you’re talking about scale – does the US still stack up?
With China recently toppling Japan to become the world’s second biggest economy, it prompts the question: How secure is the US at No. 1?
Please find the attached a short read – the recent Snapshot which investigates further into the issues of The US v China, Renewed Growth and Investors’ Hopes : US Economy March Snapshot
![The US Economy – still the biggest kid on the block]()
by Jodie | Mar 9, 2011 | Finances, General, Taxation
Taxes are a hefty financial issue and tho most of us don’t mind contributing our bit to the upkeep of this great nation – within reason, everyone really HATES unfair taxes! This interesting read turned up in my inbox this week on the Carbon Pollution and tax debate. Not being a scientist I can’t verify any of it – but it seems a whole lot of palaver over nothing when put into this context!
Carbon Tax
Let’s put this into a bit of perspective for laymen!
The Carbon tax is just another tax! It is equal to putting up the GST to 12.5% which would be unacceptable and produce an outcry.
Read the following analogy and you will realize the insignificance of carbon dioxide as a weather controller.
Here’s a practical way to understand the PM’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.
Imagine 1 kilometer of atmosphere and we want to get rid of the carbon pollution in it created by human activity. Let’s go for a walk along it.
The first 770 meters are Nitrogen.
The next 210 meters are Oxygen.
That’s 980 meters of the 1 kilometer. 20 meters to go.
The next 10 meters are water vapor. 10 meters left.
9 meters are argon. Just 1 more meter.
A few gases make up the first bit of that last meter.
The last 38 centimeters of the kilometer – that’s carbon dioxide. A bit over one foot.
97% of that is produced by Mother Nature. It’s natural.
Out of our journey of one kilometer, there are just 12 millimeters left.
Just over a centimeter – about half an inch.
That’s the amount of carbon dioxide that global human activity puts into the
atmosphere.
And of those 12 millimeters Australia puts in .18 of a millimeter.
Less than the thickness of a hair. Out of a kilometer!
As a hair is to a kilometer – so is Australia’s contribution to what the PM calls Carbon Pollution.
Imagine Brisbane’s new Gateway Bridge , ready to be opened by the PM.
It’s been polished, painted and scrubbed by an army of workers till its 1 kilometre length is surgically clean. Except that the PM says we have a huge problem, the bridge is polluted – there’s a human hair on the roadway. We’d laugh ourselves silly.
There are plenty of real pollution problems to worry about.
It’s hard to imagine that Australia’s contribution to carbon dioxide in the world’s atmosphere is one of the more pressing ones. And I can’t believe that a new tax on everything is the only way to blow that pesky hair away.
To top that off… The polls are in: on the back of the carbon tax announcement, Julia Gillard’s popularity has plummeted below Paul Keating’s record lows. So what does Federal Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey think of Labor’s policies for carbon, policing the big banks and immigration?
Watch the video from Switzer TV here: Joe Hockey on Carbon
by Jodie | Mar 8, 2011 | Debt Management, Finances, General
I am really excited to have been asked to be a guest writing on money issues for women with a great Australian site www.sheinspires.com.au
The site is designed with Australian Women in mind, but most articles transcend any geographical barriers – “Real reading for real women, no fluff, just the things you need to know.” It covers everything from gossip, children, tips, business ideas, acts of kindness, jewellery, competitions, fashion and more.
My first article is a fairly broad brush strokes article on getting your act together with money and self educating about how it works. It actually doesn’t matter how much you make – but how ‘in control’ you are.
I hope you enjoy the read: Secrets to Understanding Money
by Jodie | Mar 2, 2011 | Finances, General, Interest Rates, Investments, Self Managed Superannuation Funds, Superannuation, Term Deposit
I thought this case study would be of interest as it illustrates how to use a particular investment product to gain exposure to the growing Asian markets. We still believe in the Asia story and think to see the growth continue, but probably a little slower than it has in the past, over the coming years…
Situation for John:
John has become disillusioned with his unhedged international equity exposure. Not only has its value been affected by the Global Financial Crisis but it has also lost value due to the increase in the Australian dollar. It seems to have done little for a number of years. John still has $100,000 invested in international equity funds and has contacted his advisor to discuss liquidating his position entirely.
Strategy Proposed for John:
John’s advisor realizes that to meet his financial goals, John needs growth asset exposure so he recommends a strategy that addresses John’s concerns:
a. Sell John’s entire exposure invested in international equity funds.
b. Invest $79,000 in a term deposit earning 6.75% p.a.
c. Invest $21,000 in Instreet Link Asia 50 gaining $100,000 exposure to developed Asian equity markets (ex Japan). For a fraction of the cost of the underlying exposure this investment gives exposure to developed Asian equity markets for 3 years and is not affected by moves in the Foreign Exchange (FX) rates between Asia and Australia.
Possible Results for John:
- In 3 years time the $79,000 term deposit is worth $96,100
- If the market rallies 50% by maturity, Instreet Link will be worth $50,000 and the value of the above strategy will be worth $146,100
- If the market falls by 30% Instreet Link will have no value. However, there will still be $96,100 in a term deposit.
Conculsion
John now has exposure to developed Asia (excluding Japan) of $100,000 which is similar to the unhedged international equity fund exposure he had before. If the Asian markets continue to rally, John will benefit from this and not be affected by changes in the Australian FX rates.
John also has $79,000 invested in a term deposit at a bank of his choosing which will be worth $96,100 in 3 years. The advisor can take comfort that the worst case scenario for this strategy is a loss of $3,900 over 3 years.
This is a case study only and general in nature – not taking into account your individual circumstances or needs. For more information, a full Product Disclosure Statemnt (PDS), Statement of Advice tailored to your needs and research documents; please contact Amanda on 07 5593 6895 or email amanda@wealthplanningpartners.com.au
